What models of managerial decision-making exist
Methods of modeling and optimization solutions
In the process of resolving complex problems, with the goal of strengthening the ability of managers to make informed and objective decisions can be used various scientific methods for their design and optimization, the Arsenal which can be divided into two main classes:
• simulation methods
• methods of expert estimations.
Simulation methods (also called methods of operations research) are based on the use of mathematical models for solving the most common management tasks.
Development and optimization of a particular problem modeling methods is a rather complex procedure, which can be represented by a sequence of basic steps:
• statement of the problem
• definition of the criterion of efficiency analyze operations
• quantitative measurement of factors affecting the studied operation
• construction of mathematical model of the studied object (operation)
• quantitative decision models and finding optimal solutions
• check the adequacy of the model and of the solution of the analyzed situation
• correction and updating of the model. The number of possible specific models is almost as great as the number of problems for which they are designed.
Models of game theory
Most business transactions can be considered as actions committed in the face of opposition. The opposition should include such factors as collision, fire, theft, strike, violation of contractual obligations, etc. However, the most grassroots event counter is the competition. Therefore, one of the most important conditions on which depends the success of the organization, is competitive. Clearly the ability to predict the actions of competitors is a significant advantage for any business organization. Making a decision, you should choose the alternative that allows to reduce the degree of counteraction, which, in turn, will reduce the risk.
This opportunity provides the Manager with game theory, mathematical models which are encouraged to analyze possible alternatives of their actions taking into account possible retaliatory actions of competitors.
Models based on Queuing theory
Models based on Queuing theory (or optimal service) are used to find the optimal number of service channels at a given level of demand.
Models of inventory management
Any organization needs to maintain some level of reserves of your resources to avoid downtime or interruptions in production processes and marketing of goods or services.
Models of inventory management allow to find the optimal solution, that is, a stock level that minimizes costs for its creation and maintenance for a given level of continuity of production processes.
Models of linear programming
These models are used to find the optimal solution in a situation of allocation of scarce resources in the presence of competing needs.
A large part designed for practical application of optimization models are reduced to linear programming problems. However, given the nature of the analyzed operations and established forms of dependence factors can be applied to other types of models with nonlinear forms of dependence of the result of the operation from the main factors of the model of nonlinear programming